This is arguably the most dramatic week on the football calendar. On Thursday night, the NFL and college football worlds will unite during the 2023 NFL Draft, as young stars graduate from college to the next level. The NFL Draft is the most important event of the offseason when it comes to building rosters, so teams will be aggressive, and perhaps some misinformation has been purposely spread along the way.
It’s no secret that you can’t believe what you hear around this time of year. But at the same time, legitimate reports and legitimate developments also come to light. Which stories should we believe and which stories should we ignore? We’re here to discuss, as we break down the biggest draft rumors and either buy them or sell them.
All odds are by Caesars Sportsbook
Rumor: Texans won’t take QB at No. 2 overall
While this has been rumored for about a month, it has picked up steam in the past few weeks. In fact, NFL Media’s Daniel Jeremiah said these “whispers” have evolved into “roars.” You look at the odds in Vegas, and they agreed with these rumors for a moment. But now, a surprising quarterback is favored to go No. 2 overall in Kentucky’s Will Lewis.
The CJ Strode storyline has been interesting to watch. For some, he is the top quarterback in this class. At least, I thought those were the consensus top two quarterbacks. Does he deserve to fall down mock draft boards? Who is the better choice between him and Levis? Or do you swing for Anthony Richardson’s high ceiling? The bottom line is that I believe the Texans need to take a quarterback at No. 2 overall.
If Houston passes on Stroud, for example, the Texans say they believe Davis Mills or a quarterback they acquire later in the draft could be better than Stroud. It’s more than that, though. The Texans are likely gift Stroud (or Lewis) to the rival Indianapolis Colts at No. 4 overall. So you’re telling me the Texans are comfortable not only with a top quarterback, but playing against him twice a year? It’s a big decision.
The Texans could trade up from the No. 2 spot if an eleventh-hour suitor comes along, but if they stay where they are, I say they draft a quarterback. Reports suggest that no one knows what Nick Caserio is going to do, but I’m calling my shots.
Verdict: sell
Rumor: Tyree Wilson will be drafted over Will Anderson Jr.
Will Anderson Jr. is CBS Sports’ No. 1 prospect in this class, even though he won’t go No. 1 overall to the Carolina Panthers. In fact, he might not even be the first player off the board at his position. Some teams apparently prefer Tyree Wilson from Texas Tech. This is a rumour Been around for a few weeks now, and NBC Sports’ Peter King has touched on it several times. Apparently DeMeco Ryans can find his Nick Bosa at No. 2, and then there’s the Arizona Cardinals at No. 3.
“Tyre Wilson swings for the fences. Will Anderson be a solid double,” the NFL GM told King. It’s not hard to understand why teams despise Wilson. He’s a 6-foot-6, 271-pound monster with a long frame that should be an NFL star. But why do we limit Anderson’s ceiling to a “solid double”? He’s probably the cleanest prospect in this class.
I can’t say for sure that I “sell” this rumor. I have no evidence to bring to the table to say that it is smoke and not going to happen. In fact, the opposite is probably more true. There is more evidence to show that Wilson will indeed be drafted before Anderson, even if I disagree with that.
Verdict: buy
Rumor: Will Lewis’ stock is rising
Of all the quarterbacks in this class, Lewis is the hardest to analyze in my opinion. He has the size and arm you want, but he hasn’t had the kind of production you’d hope for in 2022. Some of that was due to injury and perhaps the lack of talent around him, but the bottom line is that Lewis has ability. Now, who would take a chance on that?
Jaime Eisner of The Draft Network recently said he’s heard “loud rumblings” that the Minnesota Vikings want to trade for a quarterback like Lewis — who we’ve mentioned before. A new favorite to the No. 2 overall pick. I don’t think I’m buying that theory specifically, but I am buying that there are teams that will consider trading for Lewis. Even if we don’t see a big trade early on opening night, the Colts need a new starting quarterback at No. 4 overall, and reports say their interest in the Kentucky signal-caller is “very real.” who knows? They might even trade a spot or two for it.
Eisner believes there is a “major disconnect” between how fans and those in the NFL view Lewis as a prospect. Just like every year, we’ll see plenty of these “disconnects” during the draft. Remember when Justin Herbert was an unwelcome prospect? It didn’t take him long to change people’s minds. Perhaps Lewis follows that path with some stability at the next level. I’m ruling nothing out.
I don’t know if Lewis is going No. 2 overall, but I no longer believe he’s as late in the first round as some mocks have suggested.
Verdict: buy
Rumor: Bijan Robinson will be a top 10 pick
Robinson is CBS Sports’ No. 5 prospect in the class, but he plays a position the league no longer seems to value. The Texas product avoided 113 tackles last season. Most tackles avoided by any FBS player over the last five years! While it comes as a possibility, it is also believed that it could be Double threat weapons to the next level. Bottom line, Robinson has so much potential that he’s going to be a first-round pick.
Now it remains to be seen how high he will go on Thursday night. Some believe the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8 overall are the most likely landing spot, and the Philadelphia Eagles are also a popular mock destination. I say both pass on Robinson, as he falls out of the top 10.
Verdict: sell
Rumor: Jahmir Gibbs is a first-round pick
The headliner for this year’s running back class is Bijan Robinson, but he may not be the only running back taken in the first round. Robinson is considered a lock to be taken on opening night, but Peter King reports that there are few teams in this draft that like Alabama running back Jahmir Gibbs!
Gibbs was third in the SEC in scrimmage yards last season with 1,370. What stands out about Gibbs as a prospect is his ability to catch passes and how he makes people miss. I already feel sorry for the linebackers who have to pick him up in coverage. Maybe he’s not as “perfect” as Robinson, but it’s not hard to believe that this guy will automatically contribute to your offense.
King went on to say that Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel would prefer to take Gibbs in the first round if he can grab them. If the Dolphins think highly of Gibbs, I bet there are a few other teams that share those sentiments. Maybe one of those teams has a first-round pick to use.
I’m buying this rumor. Every year we get late in the draft process are random developments that turn out to be true. With how weird this draft looks and how many people think it lacks overall talent, I can see Gibbs sneaking in at the end of the first round.
Verdict: buy
Rumor: Trey Lance will be traded during the draft
Last week, it was reported that the San Francisco 49ers Field calls from many teams About quarterback Trey Lance. Most people automatically assume the 49ers put this report out there, and are interested in trading the former No. 3 overall pick. Maybe they are, but this doesn’t seem like the right time. Brock Purdy is recovering from elbow surgery, and may not be ready to roll Week 1. Sam Darnold is the only other quarterback on the roster.
“Absolutely, I expect Trey to be here,” 49ers general manager John Lynch said this week, via Yahoo Sports.
Verdict: sell
Rumor: This wide receiver class is overrated in the first round
Just a few weeks ago, Jim Nagy, executive director of Reese’s Senior Bowl, tweeted that the NFL as a whole isn’t as high on this year’s wide receiver class as mock drafters are. The report doesn’t have a huge impact on the Mocs, as most still have about four to six wideouts in the first round, and the Caesars sportsbook will have the number of wideouts taken Thursday night under 4.5 (-750) instead. Remember last year when virtually all mock draft artists had Malik Willis going in the first round? Often times, things don’t go the way we joke they would. Sometimes we’re missing key information like what Nagy dropped earlier this month. I’m buying this rumor. A maximum of four wideouts in the first round.
Verdict: buy
Rumor: Hendon Hooker will be taken higher than expected
That Tennessee quarterback is looking more and more likely to be a Day 1 pick. I can get on the board with him, although I don’t think it’s a guarantee, but some believe he could be a top 15 pick. That’s where I disagree.
The team involved in the rumor is the Texans, although NFL Media’s Peter Schrager also recently mocked Hooker for the Tennessee Titans. If they pass on a quarterback at No. 2 overall, Hooker will be sitting there to scoop them up. Hooker is truly one of the most intriguing prospects in this class. He’s 25 years old and coming off his sixth year of college football, and that maturity really showed in the interview. Hooker is talented enough to be a starter at the next level, and he’s someone who can clearly buy into the system and operate it how the coach envisions it. With all that said, I don’t think any team is going to reach At the beginning of Day 1 on it.
I think Hooker will be a first-round pick, but I don’t rank him in the top 15.
Verdict: sell
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