With an annual gulf between expectations for top picks and actual results, the NFL Draft is ripe for drama.
Even the most accurate mock drafts fall by the wayside after a few picks, and one team’s surprise pick can throw a wrench in the entire first round. For some players, this can spark a signature moment as they begin their professional careers in an unexpectedly high draft slot. Yet for others, the uncomfortable wait begins when they’re on board, according to many estimates.
Draft position, of course, does not define a player. But as the first round begins Thursday, these five players could be in for anything from a slight slide to a full-on tumble out of Day 1 as they wait to hear their names called by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell:
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Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
In terms of pure football performance, Carter is one of the most unheralded prospects in the draft. The first-team All-American has been the most influential figure on Georgia’s star-studded defense during the school’s back-to-back national title seasons. He is widely viewed as one of the elite talents in the class, along with Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr., perhaps the only contender for the title of best defensive player.
In March, however, Carter was arrested on misdemeanor charges of speeding and reckless driving in connection with the murders of Georgia teammate Devin Willock and recruiting staffer Chandler LaCroy. He later pleaded no contest. In a recently aired interview with HBO’s “Real Sports,” Carter said “a couple teams” inquired about the accident but “didn’t really think too deeply.” Agent Drew Rosenhaus has resisted having his client visit teams outside of the top 10 picks, saying he is “confident” Carter will be taken in that period. But if the Seahawks — who are widely projected as the landing spot at No. 5 — opt to pass, Carter could be in for a slight slide. The Lions (No. 6), Bears (No. 9) and Eagles (No. 10) all stand out as intriguing potential fits, with Philadelphia perhaps representing its floor.
Brian Bracey, DT, Clemson
Medical concerns can prove to be an anchor on any prospect’s stock, and Bracey’s history warrants a close look from teams interested in the 6-5, 298-pounder. The former No. 1 overall recruit tore his anterior cruciate ligament in September 2021 and underwent shoulder surgery in January 2022 before missing the last season due to a kidney infection.
It’s unclear how alarmingly those ailments will progress, and there’s disparity from team to team in how they’re perceived. Those who are comfortable with the outlook — the Jaguars (No. 24) could make sense given general manager Trent Baalke’s risk tolerance for physically gifted players — could be a powerful disruptor on the interior with the versatility to take on a range of responsibilities. But Bracey has faced enough setbacks in his development that he could go as early as Friday instead of Thursday.
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
After six receivers were selected in the first 18 picks of the 2022 draft, no pass catcher is a lock for the same category this year. The disparity of this year’s receiver class is perhaps best embodied by Johnston, a 6-3, 208-pound target who averaged 19 yards per catch for his career. Target, with his size and speed, is often among the most highly regarded prospects in his class, but Johnston’s skill set leaves some significant concerns.
Despite his height and leaping ability (40 ½-inch vertical), Johnston has been consistently impressive in contested-catch situations. Drops are a constant problem, and his route-running is underdeveloped. The physical tools may be enough for him to earn a spot in the first round, but question marks could drag him to Day 2.
Brian Branch, S, Alabama
A generally measurable slot defender would be a long shot for the first round. That characterization, of course, is a gross oversimplification of Branch, a heady and multi-talented coverage asset who regularly finds the ball and erases big plays. How teams evaluate him, then, depends on how they balance his suboptimal attributes with his sterling tape.
At Alabama, the 6-0, 190-pounder once played the “star” position by Minkah Fitzpatrick, who Branch says he models his game after. While Branch has demonstrated the skill set to be used out of the slot, he doesn’t have the extensive resume operating in a deep safety role that some teams might envision for him. Even if he remains a valuable matchup piece in nickel packages, Branch can still provide tremendous value to various defenses. He may have a tough time cracking the top 20 picks — though plenty of potential suitors await in the Chargers (No. 21), Jaguars (No. 24), Giants (No. 25) and Eagles (No. 30).
One of the top quarterbacks
Admittedly, this is a bit of a copout. But while all signs point to Bryce Young being the Carolina Panthers’ pick at No. 1, it’s anyone’s guess where Ohio State’s CJ Strode, Kentucky’s Will Lewis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson will land. And if the Houston Texans bypass the quarterback with the No. 2 pick, this could turn into a game of musical chairs in which at least one of the trio doesn’t make it into the top 10.
Part of what has fueled the uncertainty is a lack of clarity about which teams might actually be buyers at the position. Outside of the Panthers and Indianapolis Colts (No. 4), there are no sure things. The Seahawks (No. 5), Lions (No. 6) and Raiders (No. 7) could all consider the passer to serve as a successor to their current veteran starter, but each is leaning toward bolstering their defenses with a premier prospect. is Instead, the Titans (No. 11) and Vikings (No. 23) could also be in the mix as trade-up candidates. Richardson and Lewis seem like the most likely guys to pull off the odd man out, but either could easily land in the top five.
Follow Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz of USA TODAY Sports on Twitter @MikeMSchwartz.
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